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                                                                                                                                                                          澳门葡京官网直营:商业零售:3月社零增速超预期 超市业态回暖明显

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年04月22日 13:30 来源:艾水秀资讯站
                                                                                                                                                                              事件:

                                                                                                                                                                          国家统计局公布3月份社零数据:2019年3月,社会消费品零售总额31726亿元,同比增长8.7%,扣除价格因素实际增长6.7%;2019年一季度,社零总额97790亿元,同比增长8.3%,扣除价格因素实际增长6.9%。

                                                                                                                                                                          简评3月社零增速回升,必需消费品维持高增3月社零增速8.7%,增速同比-1.4pct,较1-2月+0.5pct,呈现明显回升趋势,好于市场预期。

                                                                                                                                                                          从限额以上消费数据看,必需消费品维持高增长:粮油食品/饮料/烟酒/日用品3月增速分别为11.8%/12.1%/9.5%/16.6%,增速同比分别+0.6/+0.8/+0.9/-0.3pct,环比分别+1.7/+4.1/+4.9/+0.7pct。我们认为3月份必需消费品社零数据主要受涨价因素推动:3月CPI同比增速2.3%,其中食品类涨幅4.1%;且3月份社零扣除价格因素后的实际增速为6.7%,低于1-2月社零实际增速的7.1%,表明价格上涨系社零3月社零改善主要因素之一。

                                                                                                                                                                          可选消费涨跌不一,服装/化妆品、地产相关类增速环比改善明显。3月份服装针织品/化妆品同比增速6.6%/14.4%,增速同比-8.2%/-8.3%,增速环比分别+4.8/+5.5pct,环比改善较为明显;与地产相关的的家电音像/家具/建材类3月增速分别为15.2%/12.8%/10.8%,增速同比-0.2/+1.9/+0.6pct,环比+11.9/+12.1/+4.2pct,增速环比受地产市场提振显著。其他品类如金银珠宝(-1.2%)/文化办公用品(-4%)/汽车类(-4.4%)增速环比放缓较为明显,分别-5.6/-12.8/-1.6pct。

                                                                                                                                                                          电商渗透率进一步提高,实体店继续回暖1-3月全国网上零售额22379亿元,同比增长15.3%,增速同比-20.1pct,较1-2月提升1.7pct。其中,实物商品网上零售额增速21.0%,占社零总额比重为18.2%,同比提升2.1pct。

                                                                                                                                                                          1-3月份,限额以上零售业单位中的超市/百货店/专业店/专卖店零售额分别同比+7.5%/+0.9%/+3.9%/-0.9%,超市业态增速领先(受必需消费品高增速与食品类CPI上升驱动),线下零售整体维持回暖趋势。